47.7% of Catalans would vote for independence, highest figure since 2014

According to an opinion poll released this Friday by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 47.7% of Catalans would vote for independence. For the first time since the 9-N symbolic vote on independence, held in 2014, the number of pro-independence supporters surpasses that of those who would oppose. Thus, those who bid for Catalonia to continue within Spain are now 42.4%, 5 points less than in the last poll, released in March 2016. The CEO survey also asked about voting intentions if new elections were called in the coming weeks. Figures show that governing cross-party list, pro-independence ‘Junts Pel Sí’ would win again, obtaining between 60 and 62 MPs in the Parliament; currently they hold 62 seats. Alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ would come second, replacing Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’.

All the polls released by CEO after the 9-N symbolic consultation showed a greater support for keeping the ‘status quo’ rather than backing Catalonia’s independence. However, the last survey, published in March 2016, already registered a change in the trend and showed a technical tail, since 45.3% of Catalans were pro-independence while 45.4% were against. This time the ‘yes’ to independence has increased to 47.7% while the ‘no’ has dropped to 42.4%. However, the CEO also indicated that 8.3% are undecided while 1.7% refused to answer.

According to CEO’s director, Jordi Argelaguet, the main reason behind the increase in pro-independence support comes from ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ voters. Thus, while in March 20.3% of this electorate backed independence now it has increased to 30.5%. However, 55% of ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ voter still prefer to keep the status quo.
Regarding the other political forces in the Parliament, the highest percentage of pro-independence supporters is found amongst ‘Junts Pel Sí’s electorate (90.4%), followed by CUP’s voters (89.3%). At the other end are Conservative People’s Party, with only 3.08% of voters which support Catalonia’s independence, Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’ (3.5%) and Catalan Socialist Party (7.8%).

The survey also asks what kind of relationship the Catalans would prefer to have with Spain. 41.6% would opt for an independent country, 3 points higher than the figure registered in March 2016. 20.09% would opt for reformed federal Spain and 26.5% support the current status quo and would prefer for Catalonia to be an autonomous community within Spain.

‘Junts Pel Sí’ would revalidate their victory
The CEO survey also asked about voting intentions if new elections were called in the coming weeks. Figures show that governing cross-party list, pro-independence ‘Junts Pel Sï’ would win again, obtaining between 60 and 62 MPs in the Parliament; currently they hold 62 seats. Alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ would come second, nearly doubling the seats they got in the 27-S Catalan Elections and securing between 20 and 22 seats in the Parliament.

‘Ciutadans’ which is now the second force in the Catalan Chamber, will lose support and may obtain between 18 and 21 MPs, much fewer than the 25 they currently have.
Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and Conservative People’s Party (PP) would obtain similar results, 16MPs for the first and 11 for the latter. Pro-independence radical left CUP could lose between 2 and 4 seats and fall from 6 to 8 MPs in comparison to the 10 representatives they currently have in the Chamber.