Congratulations… and seven warnings after the budget go-ahead

To get as far as 28 January 2017 has taken a truly spectacular amount of effort, of perseverance on a cosmic scale, of (remarkable) firmness in what one believes in, and of capacity for dialogue so as to never quite break the cord. On the part of many people.

On 11 September 2012 the revolution took to the streets of Barcelona and a roadmap was drafted for a movement that had exploded with indignation following in June 2010 following the “coup d’état” by the Spanish Constitutional Court against the 2006 Catalan Statute of Autonomy. On 9 November 2014, based on the experience of the popular polls that got underway in in Arenys de Munt years before, the country proved to itself that it could be the master of its own destiny and was the master of its destiny for the first time in almost a century. On 27 September 2015 the hardest step of all was finally achieved: to have a pro-independence majority in parliament, a pro-independence government and a pro-independence president. The road should have been straight from then on, but bumped into the forced replacement of Mas, which was overcome by the presidency of Puigdemont; and the obstacle of the budget, the last barrier, which could not be by-passed until today, after a no confidence debate, a thorough debate inside the CUP party, and an intense negotiation between the CUP and the government.

Now there is a perfectly defined path. The budget now depends only on the administrative procedures and the vote of Parliament. The law of transition, which is equivalent to a unilateral declaration of independence, is already in the drawer, agreed and signed, awaiting for the most favorable moment to vote on it. And the referendum, which is to be held in September at the latest, is now at the starting post. We expect some incredible months that will test the country as never before. It will not be easy, but we need to be aware that we have in our hands more than enough elements to make possible a victory that many people have been patiently building from scratch, particularly in the last five years.

I warn you that the remaining eight months will be exciting in political terms, but rough. For all the state can do from now on is lash out desperately. Inaction that it has shown in recent years, its contempt for the situation of Catalonia and its chronic inability to see reality, its lack of dialogue, has left it so wrong-footed that no satisfactory reaction seems feasible before September. The Catalan Government has already said that it wants to negotiate and will not leave the table until the last minute, when it will have no choice. But we need to bear clearly in mind that a great deal can happen between now and September and that we shall have to carefully calculate every reaction

Some of these things – I think the most important – are the following:

1. They will try civil lynchings of as many people as possible, trying to burn the most active sectors of the independence movement.
Lately we have seen this in the cases of Sol Daurella and Santi Vidal. Clearly, the independence movement – and far less the government – cannot afford any serious mistakes in our camp. Months ago in this editorial I wrote about the inconsistency of the constitution that judge Santiago Vidal was promoting, with little impact. But we cannot join the lynching organized by media that have always aimed at us a few seconds before the state presses the trigger, as if they were not intentional. Just read the editorial in today’s El País, which criminalizes Esquerra Republicana from top to bottom, and remember how that newspaper behaved in 1992 and so many other times before and since then.

2. The judicial conflict, and repression, will stir up a great deal more tension and so people will have to stay very cool-headed.
Massive support for the people going on trial will of course be necessary, and the Spanish judicial system and its political dependency will have to be tirelessly denounced. But however serious the circumstances, and they will be specially so with Speaker Forcadell, we must never let the state lay down the calendar. We have to proclaim independence when it is in our interest to do so, not theirs. And forcing this proclamation too soon, I warn you, could be the way to lead it to failure. Now is not the time for.

3. Prepare to listen to outrageous claims, with which they will try to provoke highly tense situations.
And trained yourselves not to believe them. The Unionist right-wing already tries to justify an (impossible) military operation on the basis of defining the independence process as a coup. It will greatly insist on this. At the same time, ‘it isn’t possible’, as a supposedly definitive argument, will grow. And to apply pressure in this field they will play all their cards to get solemn declarations against the independence process on the international scene. And they’ll get them, let’s be in no doubt about this. Just take it in your stride and always remember that the same thing happened in Slovenia, Croatia, Lithuania and so many states that are now recognized. Remember it, but also remember something that is easier to understand and explain: that the threats to the 27-S were huge, and all came to nothing. Or have we already forgotten the communiqué by all the banks, threatening to leave Catalonia if there was a pro-independence victory?

4. They will do everything to break the pro- independence unity and we need to be very careful.
We must not fall into the trap. The intelligence of the independence movement has been severely tested these months and the test was passed with flying colours. Both the CUP and the Junts pel Sí coalition have learned a lot from the lesson of the last budget and the result is plain for all to see. But this will not stop them. They know that the unity of action of PDECat, Esquerra and the CUP (and also of the ANC and Omnium) is the main problem they have, so they will rummage round to break it. If there is any doubt, read this article by López Burniol in today’s La Vanguardia. He claims that the solution is to call an election, that Esquerra would have to win it (Puigdemont is thus the great enemy to defeat) and goes so far as to claim that Junqueras would reach an agreement with “els comuns” (the Podemos – post-communist alliance) and would accept a dialogue with Spain to block the way to independence in exchange a handful of reforms that would not even needs amendments to the constitution. I’m still speechless…

5. They’ll stretch their own laws like a chewing gum.
So much so, that we will be astounded and outraged. Some will want to use this to break with Spain prematurely, but at this time legal rigour is particularly necessary. We need to use their courts and their state up to the very last day and we must not call on anyone to jump the law. The law of transition will set up the new legal framework at precisely the right moment. Patience is one of the most powerful weapons we have.

6. They’ll do their utmost to make us make a mistake. Or else they will directly provoke it themselves.
The role of infiltrators is now more important than ever and they may try to provoke a new Scala case like the one that put paid to the CNT anarchist trades union during the transition after Franco. To counter this, we can do only two things and we have to do them right: to be very attentive and if anything happens, react altogether, united as a rock.

7. Ignore histrionic people who have nothing better to do than to claim to be pro-independence yet in the same breath say that this is all a bluff and that no one really wants to proclaim independence.
Consciously or not, all they do is preach demobilization and despondency. We have put up with their jokes and dismissiveness for a long time without making this an issue, but now, enough is enough. Popular mobilization has been exemplary, but political parties have also made a huge effort to take us where we are today and this needs to be acknowledged. To speak of ‘processisme’ and to play the buffoon when we’re slap in the middle of the train collision, is to my mind quite gratuitous and unfair. Criticism is welcome and it can be as strong as necessary; but it is high time that this defeatist strutting came to an end.

Incidentally, in today’s article Burniol also says that we who want independence think that things will happen because we want them to happen. He says it contemptuously, but today, precisely today, we had proof that this is indeed the case. Congratulations to everyone, and enjoy the coming months. With a clear head and a foot on the throttle.