‘Junts Pel Sí’ would win new elections but pro-independence forces could lose majority

Governing cross-party pro-independence ‘Junts Pel Sí’ would win elections celebrated today and obtain between 60 and 62 MPs in the 135-seat Parliament. According to the latest barometer by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO) released this Friday, Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’, which is currently the main party in the opposition with 25 MPs would get between 15 and 21 seats. Alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ (CSQP) which currently has 11 seats in the Parliament, would post the best result according to CEO and would get 19-20 MPs. The poll also shows that pro-independence has lost support amongst Catalans, since the number of people who would opt for Catalonia’s independence is now 44.9%, a figure which is slightly lower than that recorded in July, which saw 47.7% in favour of this option. Thus, Catalans are back to the tie situation which has been the most common result of the polls.

Although ‘Junts Pel Sí’ could lose some support, since it obtained 62 MPs in the 27-S Catalan Elections in 2015, it would still be the winning party. Its main partner, radical left pro-independence CUP would be much more punished according to the CEO. It would lose nearly half of its seats, dropping from 10 MPs to 6 or 8.

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would obtain a very similar result to that which emerged from the last elections. Thus it would get between 14 and 15 MPs – currently it has 16 seats in the Parliament. The Catalan branch of the governing People’s Party (PPC) would go from its current 11 seats to 13-14.

The poll also reveals what would be the results if Spanish Elections were called today and it shows a similar result in Catalonia to that which emerged in June. The winning party would again be ‘En Comú Podem’, obtaining between 12 and 13 MPs. Left wing pro-independence ERC would increase their support and go from the 9 MPs they currently have in the Spanish Parliament to 12-13. Liberal ‘Convergència’ and PSC would either lose one or two seats or remain the same.

Slight decrease in pro-independence support
Regarding pro-independence support amongst Catalans, the poll shows a return to the tie situation which has been the most common result of the polls. Thus, 44.9% of Catalans would support independence, while 45.1% would vote against it.

However, for Catalonia to be “an independent state” is still the option which has most support (38.9%), over the 23.2% which would opt for a federal Spain, the 24.1% which would like for Catalonia to continue to be an Autonomous Community and the 5% who call for it to become a Spanish region.