Scotland, Catalonia and the EU (or the chance to have two referendums)

Nicola Sturgeon yesterday announced at the SNP annual conference that she would present the Scottish parliament with a law to hold a second referendum on independence. We are talking about a referendum called by the Scottish parliament, with or without the agreement of the British government, which has already said clearly it would not accept it in any way. But above all we are talking about a referendum that forms part of the Scottish battle not to be dragged down by Brexit, and therefore of the European battle to be as little harmed as possible by Brexit.

It will therefore be difficult for the European Union to avoid making a political declaration on the matter. It could not avoid the circulation of partial versions on what would happen if Scotland chose to separate from the United Kingdom; it is well-known that nobody knows what would happen in such a case. However, as we perfectly know, declarations, which are pure opinion, are used as if they were real intentions, and the opposite. Maybe now with Brexit, the situation will be different. Nobody knows how to approach it, either in Brussels or in London, but it is difficult to imagine that the European Union might simply accept anything London says.

So imagine that Scotland wants to hold a referendum on independence and at the same time on remaining in the European Union, right at the time of or very close to the referendum announced in Catalonia. Both referendums might be held without the agreement of their respective states, both would respond to a democratic logic that is difficult to contest and both would be essential for the future of the institutional architecture of the EU. It is true that the logic of politics is sometimes very scarce, but I cannot imagine that, in a context like this, that Europe could remain on the sidelines of the discussion and still less that Europe could take one position in one case and a different one in the other. It would even be difficult to explain that it might prefer to lose territories that want to be in Europe to content those that want to leave.

So let’s watch out for the Scottish move. Some believe that it would be best for us to remain separate from any proposal from Scotland, and this is something I understand. But just think that the future of Catalonia as an independent state is only being jostled around in Europe, not in Spain, but in Europe, and from this view, the conjunction is virtually astral and enormously attractive. I am not saying that we should sign a blank cheque right now, but I do believe that we have to watch the Scottish referendum with enormous interest, ready to play hard if we have to and it is in our best interest.