The younger they are, the more independentist they become

One of the questions in the last barometer of the Opinion Study Centre (CEO), with data collected after the 26 June elections was, ‘Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state?’ And the results show that those in favour of independence at this time are in the majority. 47.7% answered that they were; 42.4% that they weren’t and 8.3% that they didn’t know. 3.4% gave no answer. This is the graph of the results:

But the results of this survey by the CEO also show them by age groups, and then we realise there are considerable differences between the groups. The conclusion is clear: the younger they are the more independentist they become, and the difference is not small. From the ages of 18 to 24, 59% are independentist and 29.9% are against. From 25 to 35, we have 58% in favour of independence and 32.6% against. And from 35 to 49, the independentist movement accounts for 48.3% and those against, 39.5%.  At ages of under 50, independentism remains in the majority; in other words, amongst those born since 1966, independentism comes out on top. Here is the graph of this:

On the other hand, those against independence are more generally those over fifty years of age. From 50 to 64, 43.8% want independence and 47.2% do not want it; and in the case of the over 65s, those in favour of independence account for 40% and those against climb to 51.1%.

Why does this happen?
To interpret these data, VilaWeb has talked to the politologist Jordi Muñoz, an expert in data analysis, who believes that the CEO survey ‘is best not published by the newspapers, firstly because it is face-to-face and not over the telephone, but also because the sample they use is very good’.

Muñoz explains the considerable differences in the independentist vote according to the date of birth from two points of view: by reasons of age and by reasons of generation. He says, ‘There are two interpretations. One explanation would be that young people are more independentist because the young turn more to radical and bold solutions. This would be an explanation that would interpret the results by age. But there is a second interpretation that says that the behaviour is explained not so much by age as by generational questions. In other words, the young are more independentist because they have not been educated under Francoism, but rather under democracy; because they are better educated; or because of a factor that we cannot ignore, which is their place of birth. We know that the place of birth (Catalonia or Spain) is a factor of considerable weight. The Catalans born in Catalonia are more independentist than those born in Spain. This would explain why the young are more independentist than the old: most young Catalans were born in Catalonia, but amongst the older population many people were born in Spain. Whatever the case, it is always difficult to explain which of the two reasons is of greater weight. Age or generation? Attitude towards life or place of birth? I believe the generational reasons are more behind the independentist behaviour than the age. If this is true, the young will continue to vote for independence when they are not young any more, because they will still be people born in democracy, born in Catalonia, etc. So it is likely that independence is just a question of time. On the other hand, if the most important factor is age, when young people are no longer young, they will no longer vote for independence and independence will therefore not be just a question of time.’

Another important aspect that Jordi Muñoz points out is the electoral behaviour of the young. They are certainly independentist, but do they vote? ‘We know that when there is a strong participation either in a referendum or in the election, there is no great variation between young and old. They all vote more or less the same. On the other hand, when there is a smaller participation, we see that it is the young who turn out to vote less, but the older people do vote.’

More examples
The difference in attitude between young and old is not something we only see in Catalonia. Jordi Muñoz explains that there are two recent examples in which young and old have also been seen to vote differently. In Scotland, most young people voted in favour of independence, but the majority of the old voted against it and this was enough for the no vote to win. The second, even more recent case, is the referendum in Great Britain on whether to remain in the European Union: the young mainly wanted to stay and the old wanted to leave.