The pro-independence majority in the Catalan parliament after the 14 February election is safe, according to the latest poll published on Friday by the Catalan government-funded CEO agency. The survey predicts that parties in favor of a Catalan republic would amass 74 to 77 of the chamber’s seats—a majority is set at 68. The bloc would also, for the first time ever, obtain over 50% of the vote, with 51.2% counting ERC, JxCat, CUP, and PDeCAT, although the latter is not expected to win any seats.

CEO also suggests that there would be a neck-to-neck battle for first place between the two current government coalition parties, ERC (34-35 seats, now at 32) and JxCat (32-34, now at 34), followed by the Socialists in third position after a significant surge (26-29, now with 17 seats). The winner of the last election, Ciudadanos, would dramatically drop from 36 to 12-13 MPs, while the People’s Party would partly benefit from this, surging from 4 to 9 seats.

The far-left CUP party is expected to obtain twice as many MPs as it had this term and win 8 seats, while left-wing Catalunya en Comú – Podem would slightly drop with 6-8. One of the main headlines of the night is expected to be the far-right Vox party making an appearance in the Catalan chamber for the first time ever with 5-6 seats.

Significant differences to CIS

This poll is quite different from that published by CIS, the Spanish-government-funded agency, last week. That poll suggested that the pro-independence majority in the Catalan parliament is at risk, with ERC, JxCat, and CUP on course to win between 58-71 seats in the upcoming vote.

The victory was projected for either the Socialists, who the poll predicted will win 30-35 seats, or ERC, who look set to take 31-33, with JxCat in third place at 20-27. The poll showed that Ciutadans (Cs) would come in fourth place with 13-15 seats, closely followed by En Comú Podem with 9-12 seats and CUP with 8-11 seats. According to this same poll, far-right Vox will enter the parliament for the first time with 6-10 seats, beating out the People’s Party (PP), who are only projected to gain 7 seats.

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